Monsoon strengthens over northwest India but Delhi remains largely dry

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New Delhi: There is a moderate risk of flash floods in many parts of Uttarakhand, including Bageshwar, Rudraprayag and Chamoli districts, as monsoon strengthens over northwest India, according to Central Water Commission’s (CWC) flood warning.

Eastern Uttar Pradesh (UP) has recorded extremely heavy rain, measuring over 20 centimetres (cm), on Tuesday along with very heavy rains reported over Uttarakhand, Haryana, eastern Madhya Pradesh (MP), eastern Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat, but only very light rain over Delhi.

Delhi has a 35% of rain deficiency to date.

“Most parts of north-west India have started recorded very heavy rains, except for Delhi, since Sunday (August 9). But the region is getting moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea. The monsoon trough (line of low pressure) is to the north of its normal position (from Ganganagar to the Bay of Bengal). So, rains are expected during the next two-three days. A low-pressure area is also developing over the north-west Bay of Bengal, which will bring good rains to central India and extremely heavy rains to Gujarat,” said K Sathi Devi, head, National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC).

When a low-pressure area had developed over the Bay of Bengal, the Konkan region had recorded severe rains, but this time Gujarat will record the impact of the low-pressure area, which is likely to develop on Thursday, Sathi Devi said.

A north-south trough runs from Bihar to the west-central Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels. A cyclonic circulation lies over the north-west and adjoining the west-central Bay of Bengal off the Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its bulletin on Wednesday.

Under the influence of the two systems, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the north-west Bay of Bengal by Thursday.

It is likely to persist over the region and become more organised over the north Bay of Bengal during the next two-three days.

The western part of the monsoon trough has shifted to the north of its normal position and it is likely to remain there during the next 48 hours. The eastern part of it is in its near-normal position. Due to these favourable conditions widespread and very heavy rain is likely over major parts of northwest India (Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, UP) during the next two-three days.

Extremely heavy rain is also likely over Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan and heavy to very heavy rain over northern parts of Konkan and Goa between Thursday and Saturday (August 13 to 15).

As on Tuesday, 20 Stations (13 in Bihar, three in Uttar Pradesh, two in Assam and one each in Jharkhand and West Bengal) are flowing in a severe flood situation and 36 stations (13 in Bihar, 10 in Assam, five in Uttar Pradesh, three in Kerala, two in Uttarakhand and one each in Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka and West Bengal) are flowing above normal flood situation.

Severe flood is declared, when the water level is touching or exceeding the danger level but below the highest flood level (HFL).

Monsoon rain until Wednesday over the country had 0% deficiency.

But there is 22% and 2% rain deficiency over northwest India and central India, respectively; and 23% and 8% excess rainfall over the southern peninsula and eastern and north-east India, respectively.

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