India to see Covid-19 peak by mid-Nov: ICMR-funded study

4 months ago 52
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NEW DELHI: The national lockdown delayed the onset of the peak stage of Covid-19 pandemic in India and gave time to prepare the health system with the curve for infections likely to hit its highest point only around mid-November, an open access study funded by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said.
The study is not peer reviewed and was conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by ICMR. According to the study, the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic - and smoothened the Covid-19 curve - by an estimated 34 to 76 days which helped bring down the number of infections by 69-97%. This allowed time for the healthcare system to ramp up resources and infrastructure.
Sources said the study had errors and was not validated by ICMR. For instance, the study said that "on May 6, after the end of six-week lockdown, the reported cases in India were 5,29,872 which were 47% of cases estimated by our model in a scenario of lockdown with 40% effectiveness". However, the health ministry has recorded only 3.32 lakh cases till date, much less than claimed in the study.
Findings of the study showed intensification of public health surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness was estimated to reduce the cases at peak and cumulative number of infections by 70% and 26.6% respectively. The requirement of ICU beds and ventilators would reduce by 83% with intensified public health measures.
Full report on www.toi.in

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