Heavy rainfall is likely in many parts of north-west India on Thursday, including Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Rajasthan, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The western end of the monsoon trough – the line of low pressure -- is lying near normal position – in Rajasthan’s Ganganagar to the Bay of Bengal -- and the eastern end is lying north of its normal position.
A cyclonic circulation is lying over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand and another cyclonic circulation is over west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining south-west Bay of Bengal off south of coastal Andhra Pradesh (AP) and north of Tamil Nadu’s (TN) shoreline.
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Widespread and heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorm and lightning is likely at many places over central, north-west and peninsular India because of these favourable conditions.
“Due to interaction between lower-level easterly winds and mid-level westerly trough, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy precipitation and thunderstorm is very likely over north-west India and western Himalayan Region on Thursday,” IMD’s Wednesday bulletin had said.
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“Rain has gradually started reducing in volume because we are in September. We’re not expecting formation of any low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal at least for a week. However, it will continue to rain in most parts of the country. For the next three-four days heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and TN and over north-west India due to convergence of winds. There will be rainfall in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of UP on Thursday,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, national weather forecasting centre, IMD.
The cyclonic circulations are likely to cause widespread and heavy rainfall over peninsular India for the next four-five days, including southern interior Karnataka, Kerala and TN.
Monsoon is likely to start retreating from September 17 in line with the new normal onset and withdrawal dates issued by the IMD in April.
September 1 was the normal date for the beginning of retreating monsoon until last year.
The new onset dates are based on analysis of monsoon data from 1961 to 2019 and withdrawal dates are based from 1971 to 2019 by scientists in IMD, Pune.
Moderate thunderstorms with lightning is very likely over southern UP, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, coastal AP, Kerala, Karnataka, northern TN, Telangana, Assam, Meghalaya, the Andaman & Nicobar islands and Lakshadweep on Thursday, the IMD forecast added.