COVID-19 Could See A Declining Trend By Mid-September: Report

India today reported the highest single-day spike of 9,971 coronavirus cases (File)

New Delhi:

COVID-19 pandemic in the country could see a declining trend by mid of September this year, according to the findings of mathematical analysis by Union Health Ministry officials.

The study has pointed out that when the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be extinguished.

This means that the transmission of the virus has more or less stopped, stated the study.

Researchers have used the methodology- Bailey's Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) or Bailey's Model on the secondary data of the cumulative number of total COVID-19 cases in India from March 1 to May 19.

The analysis has been published in the latest issue of the online journal- Epidemiology International. The authors of the study are Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health) and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) DGHS in the Health Ministry.

However, the authors have said that there is a need for evidence-based decision making at central, state and district level to achieve this. Mathematical modelling can be an important tool to achieve this.

The study noted that the actual epidemic in India started on March 2 and since then the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases started to rise in the country.

"As per the Regression Analysis (Linear) of Bailey's Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), COVID 19, India, it is observed that the trend might to 100 in the month of mid of September 2020. So, it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that''s why the coefficient will reach 100 per cent threshold," the study said.

According to researchers of the study, the benefit of using this mathematical model is that it takes into consideration of various factors including the spread of disease (field activities and other public health measures), clinical care/ recovery rate, the effectiveness of any treatment/vaccine which might be introduced later over a long period of time and not just short-term fluctuations.

The authors have pointed out the need for effective public health measures at the community level including those recommended for containment and buffer zones.

The study indicated that natural calamity, unpredictable population movement and important national or international events may have a significant influence on this model.

India today reported the highest single-day spike of 9,971 COVID-19 cases and 287 deaths in 24 hours.

The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare informed that the country's coronavirus count has now climbed to 2,46,628 including 1,20,406 active cases and 6,929 deaths.

In India, 1,19,293 people have been cured/discharged/migrated so far.

World

68,91,219Cases

34,05,091Active

30,86,427Recovered

3,99,701Deaths

Coronavirus has spread to 188 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 68,91,219 and 3,99,701 have died; 34,05,091 are active cases and 30,86,427 have recovered as on June 7, 2020 at 9:30 am.

India

2,46,628 9971Cases

1,20,406 4464Active

1,19,293 5220Recovered

6,929 287Deaths

In India, there are 2,46,628 confirmed cases including 6,929 deaths. The number of active cases is 1,20,406 and 1,19,293 have recovered as on June 7, 2020 at 8:00 am.

State & District Details State Cases Active Recovered Deaths Maharashtra

DistrictCases

Akola757

Aurangabad1974

Dhule228

Jalgaon1039

Mumbai45478

Mumbai Suburban5363

Nagpur692

Nashik1575

Palghar1421

Pune9920

Satara629

Solapur1291

Thane13660

Yavatmal150

Ahmednagar190

Amravati291

Beed54

Bhandara41

Buldhana88

Chandrapur32

Hingoli208

Jalna201

Kolhapur646

Latur139

Nanded176

Nandurbar42

Parbhani78

Raigad1462

Ratnagiri350

Sangli145

Gadchiroli42

gondia69

Osmanabad125

Sindhudurg114

Wardha11

Washim13

82968 2739

42609 385

37390 2234

2969 120

Andhra Pradesh

DistrictCases

Chittoor319

Guntur511

Krishna557

Kurnool795

Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296

Anantapur428

East Godavari356

Prakasam104

Srikakulam183

Visakhapatnam103

West Godavari199

Y.S.R.205

Vizianagaram23

4510 207

1817 163

2620 44

73

Karnataka

DistrictCases

Bengaluru Rural40

Bengaluru Urban529

Mysuru107

Bagalkote103

Ballari60

Belagavi337

Bidar219

Chikkaballapura149

Dakshina Kannada179

Dharwad61

Gadag45

Kalaburagi669

Mandya346

Tumakuru36

Uttara Kannada95

Vijayapura201

Chamarajanagara0

Chikkamagaluru19

Chitradurga14

Davangere204

Hassan205

Haveri24

Kodagu4

Kolar29

Koppal5

Raichur369

Ramanagara3

Shivamogga67

Udupi1176

Yadgir538

5213 378

3186 96

1968 280

59 2

Goa

DistrictCases

North Goa57

South Goa69

267 71

202 71

65

Tamil Nadu

DistrictCases

Chengalpattu1314

Chennai23324

Kanchipuram503

Madurai322

Namakkal83

Ranipet133

Thanjavur130

Thiruvallur774

Thiruvarur67

Tiruppur116

Vellore71

Virudhunagar185

Ariyalur444

Coimbatore188

Cuddalore477

Dharmapuri15

Dindigul175

Erode75

Kallakurichi324

Kanniyakumari110

Karur88

Nagapattinam99

Perambalur133

Pudukkottai53

Ramanathapuram119

Salem258

Sivaganga46

Tenkasi103

The Nilgiris17

Theni129

Tiruchirappalli119

Tirunelveli433

Tirupathur45

Tiruvannamalai496

Tuticorin333

Villupuram509

Krishnagiri43

30152 1458

13506 806

16395 633

251 19

Kerala

DistrictCases

Kannur357

Kottayam73

Alappuzha76

Idukki40

Kasaragod333

Kollam118

Kozhikode90

Malappuram119

Palakkad224

Pathanamthitta98

Thiruvananthapuram104

Thrissur106

Ernakulam60

Wayanad36

1807 108

1030 57

762 50

15 1

Chhattisgarh

DistrictCases

Raipur46

Korba100

Balod41

Baloda Bazar85

Balrampur17

Bastar2

Bemetara21

Bijapur2

Bilaspur100

Dantewada0

Dhamtari6

Durg31

Gariyaband10

Janjgir-Champa56

Jashpur77

Kabirdham52

Kanker19

Kondagaon0

Korea39

Mahasamund54

Mungeli87

Narayanpur0

Raigarh47

Rajnandgaon52

Sukma0

Surajpur9

Surguja14

923 44

653 20

266 22

4 2

Telangana

DistrictCases

Hyderabad2475

MedchalMalkajgiri75

Ranga Reddy183

Suryapet87

Vikarabad40

Warangal Urban32

Adilabad22

Jagitial77

Jangoan8

Jayashankar Bhupalapally9

Jogulamba Gadwal40

Kamareddy11

Karimnagar17

Khammam26

Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8

Mahabubnagar30

Mancherial43

Medak11

Nalgonda33

Narayanpet3

Nirmal21

Nizamabad76

RajannaSircilla16

Sangareddy26

Bhadradri Kothagudem5

Mahabubabad10

Mulugu3

Nagarkurnool8

Peddapalli5

Siddipet7

Wanaparthy1

Warangal Rural4

YadadriBhuvanagiri40

3496 206

1663 113

1710 83

123 10

Odisha

DistrictCases

Baleshwar190

Bhadrak137

Jajapur322

Dhenkanal36

Kalahandi33

Kendrapara164

Khordha238

Koraput16

Sundargarh102

Anugul26

Balangir129

Bargarh16

Boudh34

Cuttack155

Deogarh33

Gajapati61

Ganjam581

Jagatsinghapur91

Jharsuguda8

Kandhamal28

Kendujhar34

Malkangiri20

Mayurbhanj73

Nabarangpur2

Nayagarh86

Nuapada69

Puri103

Rayagada2

Sambalpur16

Sonepur29

2781 173

1057 61

1716 112

8

Madhya Pradesh

DistrictCases

Barwani60

Bhopal1880

Dewas140

Dhar132

East Nimar266

Gwalior211

Indore3839

Jabalpur276

Ujjain799

Agar Malwa15

Alirajpur3

Betul35

Burhanpur351

Chhindwara16

Dindori29

Harda4

Hoshangabad37

Khargone196

Mandsaur112

Morena109

Raisen71

Ratlam51

Sagar228

Shajapur39

Shandol14

Sheopur26

Tikamgarh18

Vidisha37

Anuppur22

Ashoknagar13

Balaghat9

Bhind87

Chhatarpur35

Damoh26

Datia12

Guna8

Jhabua14

Katni3

Mandla15

Narsinghpur17

Neemuch319

Niwari0

Panna20

Rajgarh31

Rewa39

Satna24

Sehore12

Seoni2

Shivpuri15

Sidhi17

Singrauli13

Umaria10

9228 232

2721

6108 230

399 15

Gujarat

DistrictCases

Ahmadabad17125

Anand107

Arvalli134

Banas Kantha147

Bhavnagar146

Gandhinagar410

PanchMahals107

Surat2311

Vadodara1555

Bharuch56

Botad55

Chhotaudepur37

Dang5

Dohad43

GirSomnath45

Jamnagar63

Kachchh99

Kheda98

Mahesana159

Mahisagar125

Narmada25

Naysari35

Patan105

Rajkot135

SabarKantha101

Surendranagar55

Tapi6

Valsad47

Amreli16

DevbhumiDwarka22

Junagadh31

Morbi4

Porbandar11

19592 498

5057 156

13316 313

1219 29

Rajasthan

DistrictCases

Ajmer379

Banswara91

Bharatpur563

Jaipur2177

Jhalawar329

Jodhpur1748

Kota503

Nagaur500

Alwar90

Barmer34

Bhilwara250

Bikaner112

Chittorgarh188

Churu81

Dausa61

Dholpur60

Dungarpur374

Hanumangarh31

Jaisalmer53

Jhunjhunu64

Karauli17

Pali352

Rajsamand140

SawaiMadhopur26

Sikar231

Tonk171

Udaipur724

Baran59

Bundi5

Ganganagar8

Jalore164

Pratapgarh14

Sirohi130

10331 247

2599 92

7501 142

231 13

Haryana

DistrictCases

Faridabad867

Sonipat404

Ambala93

Bhiwani60

CharkiDadri43

Fatehabad38

Gurugram2950

Hisar98

Jhajjar114

Jind38

Kaithal48

Karnal104

Kurukshetra55

Nuh68

Palwal120

Panchkula39

Panipat78

Rohtak145

Sirsa50

Yamunanagar19

Mahendragarh47

Rewari56

3952 355

1794 355

2134

24

Uttar Pradesh

DistrictCases

Agra933

Aligarh215

Amroha80

Bareilly17

Bijnor157

Bulandshahr166

Firozabad190

Gautam Buddha Nagar1119

Kanpur Nagar286

Lucknow386

Mathura129

Meerut504

Moradabad252

Muzaffarnagar117

Rae Bareli78

Rampur203

Saharanpur298

Sant Kabeer Nagar132

Varanasi243

Auraiya37

Ayodhya120

Azamgarh138

Baghpat68

Bahraich73

Balrampur49

Banda27

Basti214

Bhadohi60

Budaun23

Etah52

Etawah46

Ghaziabad794

Ghazipur159

Gonda59

Gorakhpur166

Hapur225

Hardoi49

Jalaun41

Jaunpur194

Jhansi41

Kannauj69

Kasganj16

Kaushambi6

Mainpuri46

Mau48

Mirzapur22

Pilibhit15

Pratapgarh15

Prayagraj30

Sambhal116

Shamli40

Shravasti23

Sitapur32

Sultanpur97

Unnao42

Ambedkar Nagar92

Amethi206

Ballia60

Barabanki168

Chandauli38

Chitrakoot4

Deoria143

Farrukhabad36

Fatehpur3

Hamirpur3

Hathras43

Kanpur Dehat4

Kheri72

Kushi Nagar67

Lalitpur3

Maharajganj85

Mahoba3

Shahjahanpur25

Siddharth Nagar159

Sonbhadra10

9733

3828

5648

257

Delhi

DistrictCases

Central4817

East2472

New Delhi3405

North3059

North East1914

North West5463

Shahdara1580

South2329

South East2446

South West2391

West4768

27654 1320

16229 918

10664 349

761 53

Assam

DistrictCases

Dhubri30

Goalpara19

Marigaon50

Baksa14

Barpeta28

Biswanath16

Bongaigaon12

Cachar80

Charaideo29

Chirang6

Darrang20

Dhemaji47

Dibrugarh61

Dima Hasao86

Golaghat203

Hailakandi57

Hojai89

Jorhat24

Kamrup42

Kamrup Metro276

KarbiAnglong13

Karimganj85

Kokrajhar37

Lakhimpur57

Majuli2

Nagaon143

Nalbari23

Sivasagar20

Sonitpur27

South SalmaraMancachar4

Tinsukia84

Udalguri28

West KarbiAnglong5

2397 244

1846 195

547 49

4

Sikkim

DistrictCases

East District3

North District0

South District3

West District0

7 4

7 4

Bihar

DistrictCases

Buxar134

Gaya115

Munger188

Patna279

Rohtas256

Arwal52

Aurangabad75

Banka134

Begusarai243

Bhagalpur266

Bhojpur103

Darbhanga143

Gopalganj123

Jehanabad178

Kaimur (bhabua)105

Lakhisarai72

Madhepura82

Madhubani199

Nalanda123

Nawada122

PurbiChamparan138

Purnia135

Saran101

Siwan139

Vaishali87

Araria68

Jamui47

Katihar175

Khagaria253

Kishanganj75

Muzaffarpur96

Pashchim Champaran57

Saharsa88

Samastipur139

Sheikhpura118

Sheohar20

Sitamarhi73

Supaul87

4915 319

2460 118

2425 200

30 1

West Bengal

DistrictCases

24 Paraganas North1031

24 Paraganas South281

Darjeeling97

Howrah1435

Jalpaiguri88

Kalimpong18

Kolkata2777

Maldah235

Medinipur East153

Medinipur West159

Hooghly604

Murshidabad125

Nadia139

Paschim Bardhaman70

Purba Bardhaman130

Alipurduar39

Bankura116

Birbhum206

Coochbehar210

Dinajpur Dakshin50

Dinajpur Uttar216

Jhargram9

Purulia66

7738 435

4236 211

3119 207

383 17

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

DistrictCases

South Andamans33

Nicobars1

North And Middle Andaman1

33

33

Puducherry

DistrictCases

Pondicherry111

Karaikal2

Mahe4

Yanam0

99

63

36

Arunachal Pradesh

DistrictCases

Anjaw0

Changlang31

Dibang Valley0

East Kameng0

East Siang1

Kamle0

KraDaadi0

KurungKumey0

Leparada0

Lohit3

Longding0

Lower Dibang Valley0

Lower Siang0

Lower Subansiri0

Namsai2

PakkeKessang1

Papum Pare8

Shi Yomi0

Siang0

Tawang1

Tirap0

Upper Siang1

Upper Subansiri0

West Kameng0

West Siang1

47 2

46 2

1

Nagaland

DistrictCases

Dimapur20

Kiphire3

Kohima7

Longleng0

Mokokchung0

Mon8

Peren2

Phek1

Tuensang3

Wokha0

Zunheboto0

107 13

107 13

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

DistrictCases

Dadra And Nagar Haveli20

19 5

18 5

1

Jharkhand

DistrictCases

Ranchi148

Bokaro16

Deoghar5

Dhanbad32

Garhwa80

Giridih19

Hazaribagh110

Jamtara2

Koderma58

Simdega48

Chatra1

Dumka5

East Singhbum170

Godda2

Gumla28

Khunti10

Latehar14

Lohardaga8

Pakur4

Palamu27

Ramgarh75

Sahebganj0

SaraikelaKharsawan20

West Singhbhum21

1000 119

520 56

473 63

7

Tripura

DistrictCases

Gomati74

North Tripura14

Dhalai196

Khowai24

Sepahijala174

South Tripura53

Unakoti49

West Tripura45

747 55

574 55

173

Ladakh

DistrictCases

Kargil77

LehLadakh43

99 2

50 2

48

1

Jammu And Kashmir

DistrictCases

Anantnag395

Bandipora175

Shopian255

Srinagar300

Baramulla271

Budgam110

Ganderbal37

Jammu138

Kathua53

Kulgam295

Kupwara231

Rajouri39

Ramban151

Reasi26

Samba25

Udhampur155

Mirpur0

Muzaffarabad0

Doda27

Kishtwar10

Poonch35

Pulwama108

3467 143

2302 100

1126 40

39 3

Himachal Pradesh

DistrictCases

Chamba29

Hamirpur117

Kangra105

Sirmaur11

Solan32

Una41

Bilaspur21

Kinnaur2

Kullu4

Lahaul And Spiti0

Mandi21

Shimla10

400 7

201 2

194 5

5

Punjab

DistrictCases

Jalandhar297

Ludhiana293

Patiala132

Amritsar485

Barnala25

Faridkot74

Firozepur50

Gurdaspur154

Hoshiarpur140

Kapurthala44

Mansa31

Moga65

Pathankot86

S.A.S Nagar137

Sangrur107

Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99

Sri Muktsar Sahib71

Tarn Taran163

Bathinda60

Fatehgarh Sahib57

Fazilka53

Rupnagar (Ropar)74

2515 54

373 29

2092 23

50 2

Uttarakhand

DistrictCases

Haridwar94

Dehradun370

Nainital323

Almora71

Bageshwar31

Chamoli36

Champawat45

PauriGarhwal36

Pithoragarh43

Rudraprayag30

Tehri Garhwal110

Udam Singh Nagar83

Uttar Kashi24

1303 88

869 9

423 79

11

Manipur

DistrictCases

Bishnupur7

Chandel5

Churachandpur32

Imphal East10

Imphal West21

Jiribam3

Kakching2

Kamjong5

Kangpokpi26

Noney1

Pherzawl3

Senapati6

Tamenglong2

Tengnoupal9

Thoubal18

Ukhrul4

157 25

105 14

52 11

Chandigarh

DistrictCases

Chandigarh313

309 5

31

273 51

5

Meghalaya

DistrictCases

East Khasi Hills22

East Garo Hills0

East Jaintia Hills0

North Garo Hills1

Ribhoi0

South Garo Hills0

South West Garo Hills4

South West Khasi Hills0

West Garo Hills5

West Jaintia Hills1

West Khasi Hills1

33

19

13

1

Mizoram

DistrictCases

Aizawl10

Champhai0

Hnahthial0

Khawzawl0

Kolasib11

Lawngtlai2

Lunglei2

Mamit8

Saiha0

Saitual1

Serchhip0

24 2

23 2

1

Lakshadweep

DistrictCases

Lakshadweep District0

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(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)