Coronavirus on ‘steady decline’ in Canada, latest modelling data shows

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Canada is seeing a “steady decline” in new coronavirus cases despite recent outbreaks across the country, according to new modelling from the federal government.

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam offered an updated picture of the current COVID-19 pandemic facing Canada, which included new modelling and estimates on the number of cases and deaths.

“The epidemiology indicates that transmission is largely under control, while also showing us that cases can re-emerge any time or place,” Tam told reporters Monday.

“The virus has not disappeared. A resurgence can happen any time or at any place.”

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The modelling showed that the steepest declines in transmission occurred in Canada’s oldest age group — people over the age of 80 — with a greater increase in people ages 20 to 39 since May 1.

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The new data also suggests Canada could see another roughly 4,200 cases and 320 deaths by July 12.

Tam and deputy chief public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo said the daily number of hospitalization and critical care cases is also steadily declining as recoveries increase. They also said two main hot spots remain in areas around Toronto and Montreal, including Windsor-Essex, Ont., which has seen a spike in cases involving migrant farm workers.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday that the new figures show the efforts to fight the virus are working but said COVID-19 remains a “serious threat to our health.”

“After a very challenging spring, things are continuing to move in the right direction. We still have some hot spots in some parts of the country, but nationally, the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths is declining over time. And that’s because Canadians are doing their part,” Trudeau said.

“Though, while we’re on the right track, the fight against COVID-19 is not over yet. As we start to reopen parts of the economy, we must continue to follow local public health guidelines to keep each other safe.”

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Both Tam and Trudeau urged Canadians to continue following advice from public health officials like wearing a mask and maintaining physical distancing.

They said that if the advice isn’t followed, Canada could risk losing the progress it’s made. Other countries have seen a resurgence of the virus, particularly the United States, where cases are surging as states began reopening and easing health restrictions.

“It going to be really, really important that everyone remains attentive and vigilant to their own behaviours so that we can prevent a second wave from arriving,” Trudeau said.

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