NEW DELHI: A “natural recession” is to be seen in the Covid-19 pandemic in India with the share of
— that are current carriers of the coronavirus infection and have a potential to spread it — declining steadily in the last two weeks, raising hopes that the fight against the disease is on track.
Official sources said the trend of active cases is seen even as enhanced testing has resulted in a rise in overall detection of new cases. The share of active cases has declined by over 8% points between June 11 and June 25,
health ministry data
The daily rise in fresh cases is being primarily driven by three states — Delhi,
— accounting for 61% of the daily case growth. On June 11, the proportion of active cases in the total number of confirmed cases was 48%, which has gradually declined to 39.4% on June 25.
Data shows the trend is visible in more than half the states, while the number of states with less than 50% active cases is increasing, pointing to what government experts say is a natural downturn.
They point out that the overall positivity rate (number of people testing positive in every 100 tested) in the country has remained stable at around 8% despite a big ramp up in testing over last few weeks. Testing remains largely symptomatic and of high risk categories. This indicates that only a limited number of people could be getting infected. India is now conducting over 2 lakh tests every day, as compared to around one lakh on June 1.